Policymakers, farm groups and commodities traders rely on the closely watched report, which the Agriculture Department issues quarterly, for its analysis of imports and exports of major farm commodities including cotton and livestock. The highly unusual rollout could raise questions about potential political meddling with government reports that have traditionally been trusted for decades.
“Objectivity is really key here and the public depends on it,” said Joe Glauber, a former USDA chief economist. “To lose that trust would be terrible.”
A USDA spokesperson blamed the delay on an internal review.
“The report was hung up in internal clearance process and was not finalized in time for its typical deadline,” said USDA spokesperson Alec Varsamis in a statement. “Given this report is not statutory as with many other reports USDA does, the Department is undergoing a review of all of its non-statutory reports, including this one, to determine next steps.”
It’s not clear when or if the written analysis portion will be released.
The previous forecast, published in February, projected a deficit of $49 billion for the current fiscal year, an increase from the November 2024 report. The new analysis revises the projection to a record $49.5 billion, beating the previous record of $31.8 billion in fiscal 2024.
Republicans used the quarterly report’s rising trade deficit projections during the Biden administration to accuse then-Secretary Tom Vilsack of not doing enough to promote U.S. farm exports. Agriculture secretaries historically have used the forecasts to promote policy initiatives.
The May report reflects Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs, the people said. The president has announced sharply higher tariffs on China and “reciprocal” levies of at least 10 percent on most U.S. trading partners.
Tariffs are not the only contributing factor to any trade deficit or surplus, Glauber said. Americans’ love for blueberries year-round, loyalty to French wines and addiction to goods like coffees — which the U.S. largely does not produce — also contribute. A strong dollar can also widen the deficit.
“What we’re importing is largely not what we’re exporting,” he said, noting that prices for common U.S. agricultural imports, such as wine and liquor, are not as volatile as the nation’s agricultural exports like soybeans.
Two federal courts last week halted and then allowed the reciprocal tariffs to proceed, a back-and-forth that only added to the uncertainty for farmers and businesses. Farmers are facing a more difficult economic outlook than they did during Trump’s first term: Some foreign markets have permanently shrunk and higher inflation has crimped farmers’ bottom lines.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has strongly defended Trump’s tariffs, arguing that imposing them is essential to removing barriers to U.S. exports, including non-tariff barriers.
She is leading a trade delegation to Italy this week, and has several more trips planned later this year to promote American agricultural commodities.
Doug Palmer contributed to this story.